Alexandria, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

053
FXUS61 KILN 180143
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
943 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm airmass will overspread the region through the end of the
workweek, with breezy conditions expected Friday. Several episodes of
showers and storms will be possible Saturday through Monday before a
drier and quieter pattern briefly returns toward midweek next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Sprinkles associated with weak isentropic lift will continue to
dissipate tonight as warm sector lifts north through the forecast
area. Increasing pressure gradient, along with development of a
south-southwesterly LLJ late should bring an increase in southerly
surface winds... though there is some uncertainty in whether we`ll
see gusts due to a weak surface-based inversion.

Otherwise, clouds will decrease while temperatures remain in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The main story of the short term period is going to be the
anomalously warm temperatures and very breezy conditions,
particularly during the daytime Friday. A tightening pressure
gradient, combined with fairly dry air in the BL (although some
moisture advection will be ongoing), should promote an increasingly
well-mixed BL into the afternoon. This will lead to breezy SW winds
on the order of 20-25kts, with gusts to around 35kts, from mid
morning through early evening. This, along with some filtered
sunshine, should promote an unseasonably warm day as temps will
generally top out around 80 degrees area-wide. A few spots,
particularly in south-central OH and NE KY where skies will be
clearest and BL will be driest, may reach into the lower 80s. Went
close to blended 90th percentile for highs on Friday given this
setup.

We will likely see some RH values dip below 25% in the lower Scioto
Valley into NE KY by the afternoon into early evening. This, combined
with breezy conditions and mean fuel moisture near or below 8%,
could lead to a localized elevated fire wx concern in these areas.

Clouds will be on the increase Friday evening into the overnight as
convection that will initiate well to the NW of the ILN FA will
slowly make its way into the local area during the predawn hours.
There still remains some uncertainty in just how far SE this
activity will make it prior to daybreak, but confidence is fairly
high that some shower/storm activity /will/ move into parts of SE/EC
IN and WC OH, at the very least, before sunrise. The best chance for
showers/storms prior to the conclusion of the short term period is
going to be near/W of I-71/I-75, centered on the W/NW third of the
local area, with areas further to the SE in NE KY and south-central
OH likely to stay dry through this period.

There is very little doubt that an axis of scattered to numerous
showers/storms will eventually pivot its way into SE/EC IN and WC OH
by daybreak, but with increasingly-meager mid/low level lapse rates
into late Friday night, the thermodynamic environment will be
unimpressive and unsupportive for maintenance of strong/severe
potential with SE extent. As such, the prospect of a band of steady
shower/storm activity moving into areas near/N of I-71 seems much
more plausible than does a pronounced severe weather episode within
this same time/space. From a forecast sounding analysis perspective,
the overall potential for more than just an isolated strong to severe
storm appears to be rather low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Synoptic setup at the start of the extended... an area of strong,
blocking high pressure remains over Florida/the Gulf Coast while a
closed low deepens over western CONUS. Finally, a positively tilted
500H trough stretches through northern North America, from Ontario
through the Hudson Bay with its associated surface low/cold front
stretching down through the Great Lakes all the way down to the four
corners region.

As this boundary sags south and stalls out, it provides the focal
point for additional showers and storm development. Right
now, severe threat is fairly marginal, with
limited instability and weak deep layer shear. Main threat would be
strong winds with any collapsing storms along with periods of heavy
rain with any training storms.

By Saturday evening, the front will meander back toward the
northwest as a warm front as the low pressure to our west begins
the process of ejecting. Rain showers remain in the forecast.

By Sunday, the low to the west will finally be ejecting and will
start to shunt everything eastward. The front remains stretched
across the area, so we`ll once again be eating the temperature
gradient with highs along the Ohio River in the upper 70s while
highs along I-70 reach the low 60s.

Eventually, the low pressure to the west ejects, pushing everything
east/northeast. Rain and storms return to the forecast Sunday night
through Monday as this feature finally moves through the region. We
finally dry out Tuesday into mid-week as ridging and surface high
pressure push into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Band of virga or very light rain showers will shift off to the
northeast of the terminals early in the TAF period, with mid and high
clouds on the decrease behind it through the overnight. LLWS
conditions will develop late tonight, lasting until late Friday
morning when vertical mixing increases. This mixing is likely to
lead to gusty winds, increasing to 30+ knots in magnitude out of the
southwest Friday afternoon.

Main uncertainty in the period is timing out the increase in pressure
gradient and associated surface winds tonight under a weak diurnal
inversion. Have kept a slow increase in southerly flow in the TAFs...
but it is possible that the surface winds could remain weaker if the
inversion is pronounced enough.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible along with a chance of
thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. Some MVFR CIGs are
possible early Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...