Alexandria, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

484
FXUS61 KILN 141658
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1258 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The severe risk has increased for this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front continues to move through this afternoon bringing
showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could become severe.

2) Cooler Temperatures to start the week.

3) Showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds Wednesday and Thursday
when a strong low is expected to move through the Great Lakes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

A cold front progresses through the area this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms move in northwest of Dayton after 1pm and progress
through the Scioto River Valley by approximately 9pm tonight. MLCAPE
values near 1000 J/kg and effective shear approaching 30 knots could
support some stronger storms especially along and southeast of I-71.
Straight line hodographs, slim CAPE profiles (weak updrafts), and
weak low level shear implies damaging winds are the main threat in
the strongest storms. While a few storms are possible further ahead
of the front, most storm coverage is expected to be on a line just
southeast of the boundary.

After 9pm, winds shift to the northwest behind the front advecting
cooler, drier air into the area thereby ending the severe threat.


KEY MESSAGE 2)

High pressure builds in behind a cold front tonight and moves across
the region on Monday and Tuesday. Dry conditions and below average
temperatures accompany the surface high through at least Tuesday
morning. By Tuesday afternoon, winds shift back to the south behind
the high on Tuesday as a low fills to the northwest. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible by Tuesday night when a warm front lifts
into the Ohio Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 3)

Medium range global ensemble guidance continues to show an
anomalously deep surface low moving through the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and Thursday. Robust upper level winds accompany this
surface low.

Although the exact details are still not resolved, the most likely
scenario involves a warm front lifting through the Ohio Valley on
Wednesday or Wednesday night followed by a cold front on Thursday.
Strong wind shear is likely and at least some instability looks
probable along with anomalously high PWATs. If conditions do end
coming together, multiple periods of severe weather are possible as
highlighted by SPC extended range outlook. Flooding potential exists
as well as mentioned in the WPC slight risk in the extended
timeframe. Timing and placement of the low across the lakes will
have a large impact on the forecast as the timeframe draws closer.
Regardless of storm potential, gusty winds are likely on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front moves through the area this afternoon. Ahead of the
front, MVFR ceilings are likely along with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Southwesterly winds persist ahead of the front.

MVFR ceilings and scattered storm move east with the cold front this
evening. Winds shift to the northwest after FROPA. VFR conditions
are expected after FROPA.

OUTLOOK... Thunderstorms and gusty winds possible Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Campbell
AVIATION...Campbell